The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.8 percent in June 2022 to 117.1 (2016=100), after declining by 0.6 percent in May. The LEI was down by 1.8 percent over the first half of 2022, a reversal from its 3.3 percent growth over the second half of 2021.
“The US LEI declined for a fourth consecutive month suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near-term as recession risks grow,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices, and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June. The coincident economic index which rose in June suggests the economy grew through the second quarter. However, the forward-looking LEI points to a US economic downturn ahead.”
“Amid high inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022. A US recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely. Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our forecast of 2022 annual Real GDP growth to 1.7 percent year-over-year (from 2.3 percent), while 2023 growth was downgraded to 0.5 percent YOY (from 1.8 percent).”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in June 2022 to 108.6 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2 percent in May. The CEI rose by 1.2 percent in the first half of 2022, the same rate of growth as in the second half of 2021.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.8 percent in June 2022 to 113.9
(2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in May. The LAG is up 4.0 percent over the six-month period from December to June 2022, faster than growth of 1.8 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2021.